AI, Big data, Automation,
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I don't think that AI is going to kill us. I think for starters there are too many smart people worried about that and obvious disincentives in creating a self learning system with that potential. I understand the argument that creating AI is all about creating systems that can develop beyond its programming. The road to killing us is long and filled with enough mistakes that even an arguably fast maturing singularity won't get there.
What I do worry about is the social impact of the effect on the global economy of AI. I am in the camp that believes that few jobs cannot ultimately be eliminated. That won't happen overnight and by then we will have had to deal with a major overhaul of employment as a concept. The issue for the next few decades is that most jobs will be dramatically streamlined with major efficiency improvements. This impacted most fields but we survived that in the big PC, network and internet revolutions from the 1970s to today because it lowered effective costs and these revolutions created entire new categories of jobs, especially high paying ones with trickle down benefits and opportunity. These results didn't trickle all the way and too many people couldn't make the transition leading to a rise in low pay services jobs and underemployment at the same time companies struggled to source enough new tech workers. AI and Robotics will accelerate with advances from quantum computing. Then, paired with improved technologies in VR and IoT, this will reduce the demand for jobs greater than it creates new ones. Take legal for example, AI doesn't have to replace lawyers but if it streamlines contracts and advisory services enough as a tool for lawyers than the demand for lawyers is reduced. More formulaic things will automate completely as evidenced by a Stanford student automating traffic ticket defenses. Lawyers are smart but those skills are only so transferable. That makes the supply of legal services relatively inelastic. When the same thing is happening in computer hardware and software, medicine and other major white collar and information age fields, where do these people go? In this blog I am going to explore these issues and also touch on emerging thinking on how we address these things. This includes the periodic waves of attempts to suppress it like regulations or protectionism but will focus more on solution like reinventing education and guaranteed minimum income solutions.
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AuthorMichael Zammuto is the CEO of Completed.com and Cloud Commerce and a strategic adviser to several startups. Mike's background is in SaaS services, B2C sites and B2B firms and has worked extensively in online reputation, digital marketing and branding. Archives
October 2019
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